Alex De Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• How do their second serve stats compare? Alex De Minaur has a slightly lower win rate on second serves at 45.97%, compared to Matteo Berrettini’s 48.03% over the last six months.
• In terms of returning their opponent's second serves, De Minaur holds an edge, winning 41.37% compared to Berrettini's 37.58%.
• De Minaur also edges ahead in first serve returns, with 23.42% over Berrettini’s 21.44%.
• Under pressure, Berrettini has performed slightly better, saving 60.00% of breakpoints compared to De Minaur's 56.10%.
• Looking at match outcomes over the past year, De Minaur has a stronger win rate at 68.67%, while Berrettini is at 52.78%.
• Both players excel on grass with a win rate of 68%. However, De Minaur’s weakest surface is clay, and Berrettini’s is indoor hard courts.
• De Minaur has been more successful at the Main tour level, winning 75.86% of his matches compared to Berrettini's 50.00%.
• In direct encounters, Berrettini leads with 3 wins out of 5 matches against De Minaur, also securing 7 sets compared to De Minaur's 4 sets.
• Their last match at the Miami Open saw Berrettini emerge victorious in straight sets.
• Over the past year, Berrettini faced opponents with a slightly higher average rank, translating to a potentially more challenging match schedule.
• Should the match go to a deciding set, Berrettini holds a marginal edge with a 50% success rate over De Minaur's 47%.

Editorial Prediction (October 23, 2025, UTC):

Matteo Berrettini shows a slight statistical advantage in recent second serve performance and in saving breakpoints under pressure, giving him a slight edge in pivotal moments of matches.

While Alex De Minaur outperforms Berrettini in return games and has a higher yearly win rate, Berrettini's track record in past head-to-head encounters, including their last match at the Miami Open, supports his potential advantage.

Despite their comparable performance on grass, De Minaur's performance dips on clay, suggesting surface considerations might tip favor slightly in Berrettini's favor.

Considering these factors, Matteo Berrettini is most likely to win the upcoming tennis match.